Stifel Comments on Ford's (F) Q3; Likes Risk-Adjusted FY15 Setup; Maintains 'Hold' Rating

Stifel maintains a Buy rating and $22 price target on Ford (NYSE: F) following Q3 results and outlook.

Analyst James Albertine commented, It seems the combination of a lower effective tax rate (+$0.03 to EPS) and diluted share count (+$0.01 to EPS), drove the majority of the 3Q14 EPS beat vs. expectations, though we believe most will focus on incremental updates (since late September investor meetings) from management as it relates to FY15 product/pricing/profitability forecasts. At this point, we believe shares are adequately pricing in moderate risk to guidance (we think "severe" risks would include quickly rising interest rates, F-150 delays, substantial deterioration in EU/SA macro climate, swift and irrational competitor pricing in NA).

Given management's positive tone related to the F-150 launch in 4Q, we would look at this as a buying opportunity heading into what promises to be a very competitive FY15 North American product market. Bear in mind Ford's broader portfolio refresh (cars, CUV/SUVs, trucks) will likely be an advantage as it relates to difficult y/y pricing compares on trucks and an increasingly competitive Japanese brand landscape (given several years of f/x benefits).

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Ford click here. For more ratings news on Ford click here.

Ford closed at $14.40 yesterday.

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