Goldman sees three factors behind Europe's market underperformance

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs identified energy uncertainty, rising interest rates, and limited exposure to artificial intelligence as the primary drivers behind European equities trailing global markets by 7% since the start of the conflict.

Gas prices pose a particular challenge for European economies, which show greater sensitivity to natural gas than oil. While Brent crude has fallen below $90 per barrel on weaker global demand, Goldman's commodities team pushed their Strait of Hormuz normalization assumption to end-August from end-June previously. Gas prices have moved higher due to peak summer demand in emerging markets and inventory rebuilding in developed markets ahead of winter.

The European Central Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, and markets continue to price additional near-term tightening. Goldman's economists expect Euro area GDP growth at 0.2% year-over-year in Q4, compared to 1.4% before the war, and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in Q4, compared to 1.5% before the war.

Global equity performance has concentrated in AI and technology sectors. U.S. equities are up 8% year-to-date but only 2% excluding AI, while Asia ex-Japan is up 18% year-to-date but down 5% excluding AI-led Korea and Taiwan. Europe's limited weighting in high-growth technology constrains its ability to capture this upside.

Goldman noted that reports indicate the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The firm expects Brent to converge towards $90 per barrel in Q4. Goldman's economists are more dovish than the market on central bank tightening, with the firm's rates strategists expecting the U.S. 10-year yield to decline by 10 basis points into year-end.

Goldman favors technology, banks, aerospace, defense, renewables, and HALO sectors while remaining underweight autos and chemicals.

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