Texas Capital cuts Caesars to Hold as $31-per-share buyout caps upside

Investing.com -- Caesars Entertainment's pending acquisition by Fertitta Entertainment for $31 per share led to a downgrade to Hold, reflecting the limited return potential implied by the announced transaction terms despite favorable long-term business fundamentals.

Texas Capital in a note said the deal values Caesars at roughly 7x 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, a level it believes significantly undervalues the company's cash-generating ability, Las Vegas Strip assets, expansive marketing network, and growing digital business. Despite viewing the valuation as attractive for buyers, Texas Capital sees limited upside for shareholders above the agreed takeover price and therefore lowered its recommendation.

Analyst David Bain noted that while alternative bidders could emerge for select Caesars assets, a competing bid for the entire company is unlikely given the transaction's approximately $17.6 billion total value. He added that the deal highlights what he views as a broader undervaluation of traditional gaming companies in public markets.

Texas Capital argued that Caesars has strengthened substantially since its Eldorado merger, increasing same-store EBITDA, reducing debt, and expanding its digital gaming operations. The firm believes the market has failed to fully recognize the company's improving free cash flow profile, ongoing deleveraging efforts, and the value of its irreplaceable Strip properties.

The research note also suggested that recent take-private transactions across the gaming sector, including deals involving Golden Entertainment, IGT, Everi, and PlayAGS, have occurred at valuations below historical norms, potentially setting the stage for future re-listings once market conditions improve.

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