Goldman Sachs sees positive US import outlook through May

Investing.com -- US imports from China showed a sequential decline last week but maintained positive year-over-year growth, according to Goldman Sachs' tariff impact tracker released Thursday.

Laden vessels traveling from China to the US decreased 3.5% week-over-week for the period ending Thursday. However, the year-over-year comparison remained positive at 9%, down from 22% growth in the prior week.

The Port of Los Angeles is expected to see container volumes decline 14% next week before rebounding with a 15% increase two weeks out. Year-over-year projections show increases of 14% and 8% for the respective periods.

Rail intermodal volumes along the West Coast rose 4% year-over-year, matching the previous week's performance.

Ocean container rates fell 0.5% week-over-week after a 4% increase the prior week. Rates remained 14% higher compared to the same period last year.

West Coast truck load availability decreased 4% sequentially but was up 55% year-over-year. Spot rates for trucks on the West Coast, excluding fuel costs, increased 21% year-over-year.

Goldman Sachs noted that import levels through May will indicate how shippers are managing restocking decisions amid lower effective tariff rates and geopolitical uncertainty. The double-digit year-over-year import trajectory suggests strong restocking activity as the industry laps Liberation Day comparisons.

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