Barclays: China's April Economic Data Shows Sharp Slowdown Across Key Sectors

Investing.com -- China's economic activity slowed sharply in April, with retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment all falling below expectations at the start of the second quarter.

Retail sales rose just 0.2% year-over-year in April, according to Barclays analysis, missing the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 2.0% and marking one of the weakest readings since late 2022. The first-quarter average stood at 2.4%.

Fixed-asset investment declined 1.6% year-over-year, contrary to consensus expectations of a 1.7% increase. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment each contracted by approximately 4%, while property investment fell around 20%.

Industrial production growth slowed to 4.1% year-over-year, down from 6.1% in the first quarter and below the consensus estimate of 6.0%. This represents a 33-month low for the indicator.

The slowdown in industrial production occurred despite strong export growth of 15% year-over-year from January through April, indicating that weakening domestic demand is affecting production levels.

New home sales contracted 9.5% year-over-year in April, wider than the 7.4% decline recorded in the previous period.

Household loan activity showed households repaid a net CNY787bn in April, the largest net repayment on record. This drove the first bank loan contraction since July 2025.

Barclays attributed the activity slowdown to fading front-loaded stimulus, weakening credit impulse, and structural constraints associated with uneven growth patterns, with oil shocks adding additional pressure.

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