Shake Shack (SHAK) PT Lowered to $100 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan lowered the price target on Shake Shack (NYSE: SHAK) to $100.00 (from $120.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "Q1 was a little hairy given the weather impact, but the stock move was all about the Q2 comp guide of 3-5% while April is off to a (0.6)% start. The implied May/June acceleration is admittedly a tough hurdle, but given the Rib Sandwich's solid start (+8% comp in most recent week), the intra-quarter traffic acceleration of 4%+ in 3Q25 from an in-app value pivot, and our 1%+ WC contribution estimate, it could prove realistic. The (28)% move in shares (now 10x EV/'27EBITDA; 55% discount to peers' 22x vs. 45% historical) is an overreaction, in our view, given that SHAK's EBITDA growth algorithm remains low-mid teens. For now, we lower our 2026 SSS growth estimate to 3.0% from 3.5% and our EBITDA estimate to $236.4M from $245.7M. Maintain Outperform, but lower PT to $100 from $120 (14.6x EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2027E EBITDA of $280M)."

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