Lilly's Strong GLP-1 Results Signal Robust Market Growth for Novo Nordisk says Barclays

Investing.com -- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) reported first quarter 2026 results on Thursday, delivering another obesity-led beat driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound strength, according to a Barclays analyst note. The results suggest neutral to positive implications for Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO), as the GLP-1 market continues expanding despite competitive dynamics.

Lilly raised its fiscal 2026 guidance by $2 billion on revenue and $2.00 on earnings per share to $82 billion to $85 billion and $35.50 to $37.00, respectively, attributing the upgrade to stronger-than-expected Mounjaro and Zepbound demand. Mounjaro exceeded Bloomberg consensus by 20% while Zepbound came in 3% above estimates, with Mounjaro's performance driven by significant international contribution.

The company's U.S. incretin market share reached 60.1% compared to Novo Nordisk's 39.4%, while the total market grew approximately 30%. Outside the U.S., incretin markets expanded 77% year-over-year, with Lilly capturing 53.2% share versus Novo Nordisk's 46.8%. Management noted Mounjaro has achieved market leadership outside the U.S., with rapid uptake across more than 55 countries, including approximately 60% share in markets like Brazil and Korea.

Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo has approximately 20,000 patients, with broad retail availability beginning April 9 and distribution across more than 12 telehealth platforms representing roughly 35% of early volume. More than 80% of prescriptions are new-to-incretin patients, with approximately 45% of early volume coming through Lilly Direct. The company plans full direct-to-consumer promotion in the third quarter.

Medicare GLP-1 bridge access begins July 1 through the end of 2027 with approximately $50 monthly out-of-pocket costs, expected to drive patient activation into 2027.

Lilly initiated multiple phase 3 programs for eloralintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, across obesity, incretin add-on obesity, osteoarthritis knee pain and obstructive sleep apnea.

The company's Ebglyss delivered $145 million in sales, up 141% year-over-year, with approximately 90% growth in U.S. new patient starts. Pediatric phase 3 data showed EASI-75 results of 62.6% versus 21.6% for placebo, with regulatory submissions planned in 2026.

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report first quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, May 6.

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