Red Rock Resorts (RRR) PT Lowered to $63 at Benchmark as Earnings Normalization Delayed

Benchmark analyst David Williams lowered the price target on Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR) to $63.00 (from $67.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented, "Red Rock delivered a modest 1Q26 revenue beat (+~0.3% vs consensus) but an AEBITDA miss (~2% below consensus), with results reflecting solid underlying demand offset by heavier-than-expected disruption. Management cited several 1Q headwinds, including construction-related disruption (primarily at Green Valley Ranch and Durango), elevated utilities, and some late-quarter friction from gas prices and air travel, though these external factors appeared limited. The more important takeaway is a shift in the disruption profile, with impacts now extending and intensifying into 2Q. Green Valley Ranch disruption is not tapering as previously expected, while Durango has moved from an unquantified risk to a defined ~$2–3M headwind, implying a more meaningful multi-quarter drag. Combined with a modest push in renovation timelines, this suggests earnings normalization is being delayed and likely requires near-term estimate revisions lower. As a result, we are lowering our price target to $63 and adopting a more conservative view on FY26 AEBITDA, now modeling for a modest year-over-year contraction, even as underlying demand trends remain stable."

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