BofA: Hormuz transits down to 3% of normal amid naval blockade

Investing.com -- Hormuz transits have fallen to 3% of normal levels in the past week due to a double naval blockade, while Red Sea transits have increased in recent weeks due to oil flow rerouting, according to Bank of America's global shipping tracker released Tuesday.

The US is considering an Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz while postponing negotiations around Iran's nuclear program, BofA said.

Container shipping is experiencing low disruptions from the Iran war and container spot rates appear to have peaked, the bank noted. Global port congestion was 0.75% lower year-over-year in April 2026, while forward quotes suggest downside risks to container spot rates as the annual contracting season ends.

US container imports are tracking lower year-over-year in April 2026, though transpacific loadings have been stronger in recent weeks on easy comparisons and seasonal flows ahead of May holidays, BofA said.

The Hormuz closure is impacting tanker flows, with April Middle East exports down significantly year-over-year while US crude exports were up 10% year-over-year in mid-April as strategic reserve releases get exported. Middle East VLCC rates at $400,000 to $500,000 per day supported by war risks should normalize as Hormuz reopens, according to the bank.

BofA expects VLCC rates to remain at elevated levels of $100,000 to $150,000 per day, benefitting from a restocking boom, a likely return to longer tonne mile flows and with tankers out of position.

Dry bulk demand is up 5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 led by strong grain flows, per Clarksons data. Coal flows could surge on energy substitution in coming months, with forward curves suggesting dry bulk rate strength should sustain year-over-year momentum through the second quarter of 2026.

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