Wolfe Research on Netflix (NFLX): 'we remain confident in its ability to raise prices over the coming years'

Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino reiterated an Outperform rating and $107.00 price target on Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)

The analyst comments "Investors often fret about Netflix's attention share losses to YouTube, Meta, and TikTok, but the data show that Netflix's core engagement trends are positive. Further, Netflix sells a highly differentiated product whose value is indirectly tied to raw engagement. That said,more is better. Global expansion continues: Our Netflix engagement tracker highlights the rising dominance of originals and local content. Non-English content accounted for appx. 68% of 2025 engagement, a dip from 70-71% in 2023-2024. While this appears minor, a 2-3 point shift represents 4B-6B viewing hours migrating to non-English programming. Despite this, we estimate international engagement per subscriber declined HSD in 2025, compared to only LSD declines in the US. While stagnation and AI-related fears persist, we see positive underlying trends. International mix shift drag: International engagement trends are stronger than they appear, currentlydiluted by regional mix shifts. Netflix is growing disproportionately in markets with lower screen time (Exhibit 15). For instance, Japanese average roughly 50% less TV than Americans. As net adds index toward these lowerconsumption regions, average engagement faces a headwind. Additionally, Netflix continues to benefit from the global decline of linear pay-TV and the proliferation of CTVs. If CTV households continue to grow by 70-100M annually and Netflix maintains its ~30% penetration of CTV homes, it is well positioned for sustained MSD+ subscriber growth. Can Netflix take price without much engagement growth? As viewers migrate from linear TV to streaming, we expect Netflix to capture a larger share of TV. Growth will be gradual as we est. the avg. US Netflix subs already spend 1/3 of daily video time (1.6hrs per day) watching Netflix. As long as Netflix maintains this significant share of daily attention, and therefore remains core to the daily lives of its subscribers, we remain confident in its ability to raise prices over the coming years."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Netflix click here. For more ratings news on Netflix click here.

Shares of Netflix closed at $92.58 yesterday.

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