Aletheia: 'we estimate TSMC can sustain well above 30% CAGR'

Aletheia: 'we estimate TSMC can sustain well above 30% CAGR'.

The analyst comments "Citing robust and sustained AI demand, TSMC has revised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to over 30% (from nearly 30%) and lifted capex guidance to the top end at $56bn, a 36% YoY increase. Both adjustments align with our expectations. With supply expected to remain tight, TSMC aims to add three new N3 fabs through 2028, consistent with our forecast that the company could invest as much as $220-230bn from 2026–2028, including capacity build-out at N2, A16, A14 nodes and advanced packaging. If current demand persists and execution remains on track, we estimate TSMC can sustain well above 30% CAGR, with EPS set to double between 2026–2028. We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of TWD 3,000 /$600 and maintain the stock in our Alpha Portfolio."

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