Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) PT Raised to $54 at Guggenheim

Guggenheim analyst Paul Jeng raised the price target on Ideaya Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA) to $54.00 (from $50.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "Following positive topline results from the pivotal Ph. 2/3 OptimUM-02 study for IDYA’s lead asset darovasertib (our note here), we are providing some additional thoughts on the data and takeaways from our post-webcast management discussion. Near-term debates will likely continue to focus on the potential for daro to be used off label for HLA-A*02:01-positive mUM, particularly in absence of pivotal OS data (interim analysis guided for mid-2027) to provide a cross-trial comparison with IMCR's Kimmtrak (21.7 months). In the meantime, we point to several factors that support our view on likely off-label use, including: (1) daro targets a key driver of disease (PKC) in mUM that is independent of HLA status, with equivalent activity in both HLA-positive and negative patients borne out in prior Ph. 2 data (here); (2) pivotal ORR/PFS data from OptimUM-02 have been highly consistent with previously reported Ph. 1/2 data, which bodes well for both OS endpoint success and median OS landing close to the SMR number (21.1 months); (3) there remains a high unmet need for HLA+ patients who are eligible for a subsequent line(s) of therapy post-Kimmtrak, with our KOL feedback (here) indicating many patients receiving Kimmtrak stay on treatment beyond progression in part due to the absence of any alternative therapies. That said, the key near-term opportunity for daro remains in the HLA-A*02:01-negative where the US TAM will be highly dependent on pricing and real-world duration of therapy (we assume $250M using conservative assumptions). We are updating our model following today's positive topline results to reflect increased PoS for darovasertib in 1L metastatic UM (95%, from 80% previously). Our PT moves to $54/share (from $50 previously) and we maintain our BUY rating."

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