Novo Nordisk (NVO) PT Lowered to $36 at BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman lowered the price target on Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) to $36.00 (from $45.00) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.

The analyst commented: "Wegovy Pill volume growth has been impressive, but lower cost per TRx could set up for an early product launch miss. IQVIA estimates that ~721k Wegovy Pill scripts have been written in 1Q26. Novo commentary has indicated capture rates have slowly improved from 50% to 60% throughout the quarter, making total TRx for the quarter likely closer to 1.3M. While volume growth has been strong for the Wegovy Pill, we note ~450k of the 721k tracked scripts come from the 1.5mg dose. This dose is priced the lowest at $149/month in the DTC segment, limiting contributions to revenue for the quarter. Given the high volume of 1.5mg and 4.0mg doses in 1Q, we estimate 1Q26 Wegovy pill revenue will reach $136M (DKK 881M at DKK/USD of 0.1546). Consensus currently estimates U.S. net revenue of DKK 1,001M setting up for a potential -12% miss. Over time, Wegovy Pill revenue growth will require further volume expansion of higher doses to beat consensus estimates in the remainder of the year."

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