Smurfit Westrock (SW) PT Lowered to $56 at UBS

UBS analyst Andrew Jones lowered the price target on Smurfit Westrock (NYSE: SW) to $56.00 (from $60.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "We cut EBITDA estimates in 2026/27/28 by 4/5/1% as we take $20/st off our containerboard price forecasts in the US, effectively assuming no further price increase in 2Q (but still assuming a $50/st hike in early 2027) due to new demand uncertainty from the Iran fallout. We also assume some cost pressure from higher gas/fuel/chems/ transport costs. We still see EBITDA in Smurfit's $5-5.3bn 2026E EBITDA guidance range (UBSe $5.18bn). We also incorporate higher D&A ($2.6bn, +$105m) and ETR of 29% (from 26%) to align with guidance. The net result is 20/15/2% cuts to our EPS forecasts in 2026/27/28. Following Smurfit's more ambitious LT targets ($7bn EBITDA by 2030 with no US price hikes), we offset some of these negatives with higher medium term organic cost savings, but our EBITDA remains closer to $6bn by 2028E and $6.6bn by 2030E as we think management will need to show more evidence of progress before we factor in the full effect."

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