BTIG on American Express (AXP): 'it appears that spending is increasing faster than these expenses'

BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic reiterated a Sell rating and $285.00 price target on American Express (NYSE: AXP)

The analyst comments "Delta Airlines (DAL, Not Rated) reported 1Q26 earnings this morning, providing metrics and commentary that relates to American Express's premium card with Delta. Delta is Amex's largest co-brand partner, consisting of 13% of Amex's billed business volume and 21% of loan balances at the end of 2025, and representative of American Express's superprime consumer base and corporate travel. Delta's results and commentary are a positive read-through to Amex's 1Q26 results. While we do think higher remuneration means higher expenses, it appears that spending is increasing faster than these expenses and implies margin expansion with the relationship. Delta's results jibe with what we're hearing from other channel checks that are also showing better travel spend in 1Q26 as consumers prebook 2026 travel ahead of price increases. This implies that Amex's 1Q26 billed business should accelerate this quarter. Amex's remuneration to Delta grew 10% y/y (flat q/q) to $2.2 billion. Based on our estimates, 46.9% of Amex's cardmember rewards expenses are driven by remuneration to Delta. Card spend grew by 12%, driven by acquisitions (card sign-ups). Delta also disclosed that premium revenues were up 14% y/y, noting corporate demand for premium products was particularly strong. Delta's corporate survey results indicate 85% of respondents expect their corporate travel spend will increase or stay the same in the June quarter."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on American Express click here. For more ratings news on American Express click here.

Shares of American Express closed at $316.34 yesterday.

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