Prediction markets show low odds for Hormuz Strait reopening soon

Investing.com -- Prediction market participants are expressing skepticism about the near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as speculation grows about potential diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran.

On Kalshi, the odds that tanker traffic through the strait will return to normal before April 15 stand below 25%. The probability improves to more than 67% for a reopening by June 1, and rises to 76% by July 1.

Kalshi defines a return to normal as the seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls exceeding 60, according to IMF PortWatch data. Approximately $100,000 has been wagered in this market.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handled roughly 20% of global crude oil transit before the conflict began, has emerged as a critical point of tension. Iran has effectively stopped trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea following U.S.-Israeli military strikes. These strikes included the killing of Iran's supreme leader on February 28, the first day of the airstrikes.

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