Jefferies upgrades MP Materials, lifts target on Saudi JV, EU project

Investing.com -- Jefferies upgraded MP Materials to Buy from Hold, saying the market is undervaluing U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) support and future international catalysts.

The brokerage raised its price target to $80, up from $33.

MP shares have doubled recently after securing supply agreements with the DoD and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which Jefferies says validate the company’s scale and technology.

The firm sees potential for over 10 additional OEM offtake deals through 2028, reinforcing MP’s position as a key rare earth supplier outside China.

Jefferies believes the DoD agreement alone could have lifted Mountain Pass valuation by $27 if production were accelerated to 2028.

Additional financing and DoD-related value could add another $12, suggesting the current share price implies $21 of “option value,” compared to Jefferies’ prior estimate of $10–$14.

Jefferies also flagged global expansion as an underappreciated tailwind.

It sees a 90% probability that MP finalizes a $1.5 billion Saudi Arabia joint venture by end-2026, and a 50% chance of a European Union project between 2027 and 2029.

Together, these could add $27 per share in value, according to the note.

Separately, Jefferies includes $15 of upside in its new price target from a potential 50-basis-point Fed rate cut, noting MP may trade like a "convertible bond" due to downside protection from its DoD agreement.

The firm sees further upside if magnet pricing (NdPr) strengthens, central banks ease more aggressively, or MP announces expansion projects with strong returns

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