This is what matters most for today's Nvidia earnings print: Mizuho

Investing.com -- As Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) gears up to report earnings, Mizuho said investors are focusing less on this quarter’s guidance and more on long-term momentum tied to Blackwell and China updates.

“The clear conclusion from buyside feedback is: July qtr guide matters a lot less vs normal due to expected lost H20 revs in China,” the firm wrote.

Instead, “what will matter much more for stock and investor sentiment will be CEO / CFO commentary on call about a potential ramp in Blackwell GB200 rack system output and acceleration of rev-recog into Oct qtr onward.”

Mizuho flagged that despite a 23% rally since April 1, Nvidia shares are “essentially the exact same price as mid-June of last year,” making it a potential “catch-up trade” if the company can deliver anything above expectations on outlook, Blackwell, or new China revenues.

The firm’s analysts also said they are “starting to worry a bit with stock up so much past few weeks into the print... at upper $130 price level, the set-up definitely feels tougher vs the $100-110 level.”

Still, they added, “Gun to head, I would rather be long vs short the stock today into the print.”

Among the key drivers post-earnings are expected to be investor sentiment around the new B20 China GPU, seen as a potential offset to H20 losses; confirmation that gross margins are trending back toward “mid 70s in a few quarters,” and increased confidence in a 2H ramp for Blackwell.

Mizuho added, “Buyside EPS whisper for FY27 hearing $6,” with investors eyeing a 25–30x P/E range for valuation.

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