Venture Global (VG) PT Lowered to $12 at Bernstein SocGen Group

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Bob Brackett lowered the price target on Venture Global (NYSE: VG) to $12.00 (from $18.00) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.

The analyst commented: "Venture Global reported their first earnings with 2025 EBITDA guidance of $6.8-7.4bn falling short of consensus (the midpoint is -20% below our previous estimate). The guidance bakes in $7-8/mcf fee on commissioning cargoes. Management highlighted that though individual trains at CP1 have produced volumes above nameplate capacity at discrete times, the site in aggregate has not. We continue to model production levels above nameplate up to guided peak capacity, but do not include bolt-ons. Venture Global announced a 18.6MTPA phase 3 expansion project on Plaquemines targeting FID in mid-2027 and first LNG in mid-2029. VG stated that future contracts could include a blend of 3-20 year tenures. As anticipated, Venture Global guided to a starker 2025 EBITDA sensitivity than Cheniere, of $625-675mn for every $1/mcf change in liquefaction fee. We update our model to reflect latest 2025-26 TTF strip pricing, their opex and shipping guidance, and slightly higher production volumes to reflect their volume guidance. The stock closed -36% lower after reporting."

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