Moderna target nearly halved by Morgan Stanley on weak guidance

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley slashed its price target on Moderna Inc (BMV: MRNA) (NASDAQ: MRNA) to $38 from $70 given the lowered revenue guidance and ongoing competitive pressures in the vaccine market.

The firm noted Moderna's reduced 2024 sales forecast of $3.0–$3.1 billion, down from $3.0–$3.5 billion, driven by declines in Spikevax (COVID vaccine) sales and minimal contributions from mRESVIA (RSV vaccine).

Challenges such as declining vaccination rates and regulatory uncertainties for manufacturing plants in key markets like the UK, Canada, and Australia also impacts the company, with Moderna also cutting its 2025 revenue outlook to $1.5–$2.5 billion.

Investor are concerned over Moderna's ability to meet its 2028 cash breakeven target amid rising competition and uncertainties in its pipeline execution.

Cost-cutting measures, including a $1 billion reduction in 2025 cash expenses, are expected to improve operational efficiency, but Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) remains cautious about Moderna's near-term prospects.

Brokerage maintained its “Equal-weight” rating on Moderna. “While we believe there is long-term upside for Moderna, we believe the signicant valuation increase associated with the success of the COVID-19 vaccine limits the near-term upside.”

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