ASML Inc. (ASML) PT Lowered to $1,148 at JPMorgan, 'The key debate from here is how much the co. can grow'

JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande lowered the price target on ASML Inc. (NASDAQ: ASML) to $1,148.00 (from $1,207.00) while maintaining a Overweight rating.

The analyst comments "The key debate from here is how much the co. can grow in ’26: Now that the co. has guided ’25 (and ASML rarely misses a guided year bar manufacturing issues) the debate on the stock should begin to shift to ’26. If the co. can achieve close to €40bn in ’26 sales (we are forecasting €39bn), then the co can achieve EPS of €33 or slightly more. How ‘26 develops is going to depend on how the consumer semiconductor market develops in ‘25. If consumer semis is stronger by 2H25, ‘26 in the above-mentioned range is possible. ASML stock at 25x ’26 EPS multiple would have over 30% upside potential. At 30x it would have over 55% upside potential. As can be seen in the valuation graph in the note, the co. has historically seen P/E of 20-40x. If the co. can convince investors at the CMD that the long-term case is intact, the stock should trade in the 25-30x range in our opinion; higher if the market over time were to be convinced of the co. being able to achieve high end of ’30 guidance. Thus, we remain OW on the stock, slightly adjusting our PT to €1,057 to adjust for our 4% ’26 EPS cut."

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