Why Barclays expects Tesla's third-quarter deliveries to top consensus estimates

Investing.com -- Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) third-quarter electric vehicle deliveries are tipped to jump by 8% versus the year-ago period to roughly 470,000 units, according to analysts at Barclays.

In a note to clients, the analysts added that their estimate would be above company-compiled consensus estimates of 461,000.

"Given the positive data points reported thus far in the quarter, particularly in China, we believe Tesla's sales trajectory is well understood and investors are expecting a stronger result," the analysts said.

They estimated that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries in China, the world's biggest automotive market and key indicator of global EV demand, likely came in at around 179,000, which would set a quarterly record. They said the company's returns in the country, where it has been engaged in ongoing price war with domestic competitors, has been "surprisingly robust."

"We assume the China strength is more a function of better macro/EV demand - yet it's also possible that incentives/pricing, or even some renewed interest ahead of the 2025 launch of [full self-driving technology, or FSD] may be aiding demand," they said.

Tesla has said that it plans to launch FSD in China early next, pending regulatory approval. This was slightly later than earlier plans put forward by Chief Executive Elon Musk to unveil the technology by the end of this year.

In the second quarter, the firm reported electric vehicle deliveries that were better than expected, and well above the number of vehicles produced, pointing to an improvement in demand that may help ease concerns around excess inventory for its flagship Model 3/Y.

Tesla's deliveries, a close approximate to sales, were 443,956 in the second quarter, topping Wall Street estimates of around 438,000, stoking hopes that the worst of a downturn in the wider electric vehicle market could be in the rearview mirror.

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