Citi sees below-consensus Q2 deliveries for Tesla

Citi analysts anticipate Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)'s Q2 deliveries to fall short of market expectations, estimating around 400,000 units compared to the consensus of 444,000.

"Q2 demand appears to be running below our estimate in Europe and U.S.," states Citi. While China seems to be performing above expectations, Citi believes overall consensus figures remain too high.

The key factor to watch, according to the bank, is whether Tesla sheds light on its new, affordable electric vehicles announced in Q1. Positive updates could shift the narrative away from near-term headwinds. However, a lack of information could lead to further estimate cuts for Tesla.

Looking ahead, they view Tesla's upcoming "RoboTaxi Day" in August as a pivotal event. While acknowledging past skepticism surrounding Tesla's self-driving ambitions, Citi analysts identify potential advantages for the company.

"We view Tesla's biggest advantages as: (a) leading RoboTaxi HW&operating costs; (b) AI models (E2E)&training," highlights the Citi note. The key question, however, is whether Tesla can convince investors of a credible deployment roadmap for its autonomous vehicles.

Citi suggests that Tesla might focus on strategically deploying its RoboTaxi technology in "easier yet still lucrative domains" to leverage its strengths. The report also explores potential implications for the broader ADAS/AV industry, including how competitors might react to a more robust Tesla RoboTaxi offering. Citi maintained a Neutral rating and a $182 price target on Tesla shares.

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