After CPI report, UBS sees interest rate cut cycle starting only in September

UBS has decided to revise its projections for the start of the interest rate cut cycle in the United States and now estimates that the Federal Reserve will begin the reductions only in September, no longer in June as previously projected. According to a report sent to clients and the market on Wednesday, UBS estimates a 0.25 percentage point cut in September and another of the same magnitude in December.

According to economists Jonathan Pingle, Pierre Lafourcade, Alan Detmeister, Amanda Wilcox, and Abigail Watt, the expectation is for a slowdown in growth and inflation in the coming quarters, with an acceleration in the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025.

"With the upside surprise in the CPI reported this morning, and only one more CPI report for the FOMC to fully digest the inflation implications ahead of the June FOMC meeting, the odds of a June rate cut have fallen significantly, in our view," the economists emphasize.

UBS notes that the CPI data comes on top of the payroll employment report from last Friday which was above expectations. "It will be altogether hard to undo these signals," the bank concludes.

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