'Well, it's complicated': PayPal shares fall 9% on flat profit outlook

PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings and revenue but its shares still fell in pre-market Thursday trade due to a flat profit forecast.

For Q4, the financial services giant posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.48, topping the estimated $1.36. The company's revenue for the quarter reached $8 billion, surpassing the consensus forecast of $7.88 billion.

The total payment volume for the quarter was reported at $409.83 billion, marking a 15% year-over-year increase and above the projection of $403.6 billion. Transaction revenue grew by 8.7% YoY to $7.28 billion, compared to the estimated $7.1 billion.

However, active customer accounts slightly declined by 2.1% YoY to 426 million, just below the forecasted 427.98 million. Payment transactions saw a 13% YoY increase to 6.80 billion, outperforming the consensus estimate of 6.60 billion.

Looking forward, PayPal has provided guidance for the full year 2024, projecting an EPS of $5.10, aligning exactly with analysts’ expectations.

For Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams, there are two sides to the go-forward.

"On one hand, the outlooks for gross profit and EPS should provide a floor for FY24 estimates, a prudent move. On the other, there is risk in committing to invest heavily behind efforts to fix problems (namely, branded checkout market share) that may we believe may be irreparable, and the shift to non-GAAP EPS including SBC likely lowers the ceiling for the stock in the near-term (rich valuation relative to growth)," he said.

Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller said the guidance is "likely conservative." However, despite this, PayPal remains "a show-me story."

"While we see some conservatism in guidance, we believe that PYPL remains a show-me story pending execution on strategic initiatives."

By Vahid Karaahmetovic

Additional reporting by Senad Karaahmetovic

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