We no longer anticipate a U.S. recession in this calendar year - JPMorgan

Michael Feroli, Chief economist and head of global economic research at JPMorgan, no longer anticipates a U.S. recession this year.

The change in sentiment comes as the U.S. economy continues to expand at a healthy pace.

“Given this growth, we doubt the economy will quickly lose enough momentum to slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter, as we had previously projected,” the economist wrote in a note.

“While a recession is no longer our modal scenario, risk of a downturn is still very elevated. One way this risk could materialize is if the Fed is not done hiking rates. While we and the markets think it is done, it probably wouldn’t take much of an upside inflation surprise for the FOMC to deliver the extra rate hike that was signaled in the June dots, with perhaps even more to come.”

Instead, Feroli says recession risks are now elevated for the next year. JPMorgan also expects the Fed to start cutting rates in the third quarter of the next year.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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