TD Cowen sees positives for Alphabet (GOOGL), but notes 'some risk to YouTube mobile share'

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge lifted the firm's price target for Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) to $140 from $130, reiterating an Outperform rating in a note previewing the tech giant's second quarter.

The analyst stated that a 2Q digital ad expert check call TD Cowen held on July 10 implies ongoing US consumer strength propelled Google's 2Q23 search spend growth higher quarter-on-quarter despite macro fears.

"We estimate 2Q23 GOOG reported Search & Other revenue +5.6% y/y (below our expert's results, partially due to the agency's lack of Int'l or Financials exposure), & accelerating vs reported +1.9% in 1Q23; excluding FX headwinds, we forecast Search & Other rev growth of ~6% y/y (vs. ~5% y/y in 1Q23). We continue to expect Search & Other growth to accelerate in 2H23 on moderating comps," the analyst wrote.

"We est. YouTube adv. will improve seq to a reported +2.8% y/y in 2Q (vs a (2.6%) y/y decline in 1Q23), with the return to y/y growth helped by easing comps & stabilizing ad spend, amid growing monetization at YouTube Shorts," he added.

However, TD Cowen's latest survey highlights some risks to YouTube mobile share amid the rise of TikTok, especially among younger users.

According to Blackledge, among the 18-24 demographic, YouTube was 2nd place in 2Q23 when respondents were asked which platform they used most often for mobile video, with TikTok at number 1.

By Sam Boughedda

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