Expectations Reset: Lyft (LYFT) Stock Crashes 25% as Driver Investments Weigh on Margins, Analyst Downgrades to Neutral and Cuts PT by Over 50%

Shares of Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) are down more than 25% in premarket trading Wednesday after the company reported a lower-than-expected Q1 number of active riders.

Lyft reported Q1 revenue of $875.6 million, up 44% YoY and above the consensus estimates of $844.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $54.8 million in the period, well above the analyst expectations of $14.4 million. The company reported a loss per share of 57c, compared to the loss per share of $1.31 in the same period last year.

The number of active riders stood at 17.8 million in the quarter, up 32% YoY and almost in line with the consensus estimates of 18 million. Revenue per active rider came in at $49.18, up 9% YoY.

For the second quarter, Lyft expects revenue in the range of $950 million to $1 billion, missing the estimated $1.02 billion. Q2 adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $10 million to $20 million.

The company said it plans to invest more in driver supply in the current quarter.

“Our Q1 results meaningfully exceeded our outlook. This outperformance was driven by increased demand and resilient driver levels,” said CFO Elaine Paul.

Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil cut LYFT stock to Neutral from Positive and lowered the price target to $25.00 from $54.00.

“We believe the softer near-term outlook, need to increase investments, and numerous macro headwinds are likely to weigh on shares in the near-term, causing us to move to the sidelines,” Patil said in a client note.

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju lowered the price target to $60.00 per share from $61.00 but remains Outperform-rated.

“Despite better-than-expected 1Q22 results, the focus will be on Lyft’s decision to invest ahead of the anticipated demand recovery. We believe the company’s move to be proactive, as it looks to improve the user experience levels, while keeping pace with the expected rise in demand… We maintain our Outperform rating on the following:1) large, fragmented, and underpenetrated addressable market of $745b, 2) autonomous and subsequent decrease to pricing offers optionality for earlier entry into steeper part of consumer adoption S-curve, 3) upside potential longer-term to generate ongoing operating leverage as the US ride share sector remains a rational duopoly,” Ju said in memo to clients.

Lyft stock price was already down over 30% YTD heading into the earnings report.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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