Coinbase (COIN) Stock Dips Despite Smashing Estimates, Analyst Says Lack of Revenue Visibility Makes Forecasting Difficult

Shares of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) are down around 2% in pre-open Friday despite the company reporting fourth-quarter financial results that topped analyst expectations.

The crypto exchange reported EPS of $3.32, compared to $1.62 reported in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.21 billion, beating the estimated $873.9 million. Revenue came in at $2.5 billion, up 90% QOQ, and above the consensus estimates of $2 billion.

Transaction revenue was reported at $2.28 billion, up from the $1.09 billion in the prior quarter and above the expected $1.73 billion. Subscription & services generated $213.4 million in revenue, up 47% QOQ, and compared to the analyst consensus of $175.1 million. Other revenue sources generated $8.44 million, compared to the expected $129.8 million.

The number of monthly transacting users in the quarter totaled 11.4 million, up 54% QOQ, and above the consensus estimates of 9.8 million. Trading volume totaled $547 billion in the period, up 67%, and above the analyst consensus of $501.35 billion. Retail trading volume stood at $177 billion, up 90% QOQ, and above the estimated $142.42 billion.

For full-fiscal 2022, Coinbase expects the number of monthly transacting users to range between 5 million and 15 million, compared to the estimated 9.6 million.

"Simply put, we have less near-term visibility, and it is currently too early to provide a more precise range,” the company said in a press release.

Goldman Sachs analyst Will Nance reiterated a Buy rating and a $250.00 per share price target on COIN stock. The analyst blamed “marked to market guidance and higher investment spending” for a dip in Coinbase shares following results.

Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau sees lack of revenue visibility as a challenge. The analyst lowered the price target to $377.00 per share from the prior $444.00.

“Overall it is tough to provide earnings estimates to investors with high confidence. We have largely baked in expense guidance without giving a lot of credits on potential incremental revenue… Investors with shorter investment horizon may not wait for revenue visibility, but shares look attractive to long term investors,” Lau said in a client note.

By Senad Karaahmetovic | [email protected]

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