General Electric (GE) PT Lowered to $6 at JPMorgan; Sees EPS/FCF/Dividend All Down ~85%

(Updated - November 9, 2018 10:29 AM EST)

(updated to add more analyst color)

JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa, considered the "ax" in the stock, lowered his price target on General Electric (NYSE: GE) again. This time he cut the target to $6.00 (from $10.00) while maintaining an Underweight rating. Tusa said results were worse than expected on nearly all fronts, including forecasts for FCF and EBITDA moving materially lower.

Tusa added that a material change in language from the 10Q suggests a negative step down in the leverage situation.

The analyst said while sell-side bulls now point to “liquidity concerns” as the driver of share price weakness, this misconstrues what he calls the "Real Bear Case (RBC)" - namely $100 B in liabilities and zero enterprise FCF even after a 95% dividend cut.

While shares are down ~70% from the peak of $30, the move still does not sufficiently reflect the fundamental facts, he said.

Tusa said as the dust continues to settle, they expect the anchor on "EPS/FCF/dividend to all be down ~85% ($2 to $0.30 in FCF), while GECS is now FCF negative by ~$3B, debt will be ~flat (Industrial debt up ~$10B), liability discovery will be up ~$25 B ($3 per share alone), and assets will be down $40 B (i.e., less resources to offset)."

"In other words, while liquidity is certainly debatable, we believe this is not really about liquidity, it’s about a deterioration in run rate fundamentals (by 2020, we believe that 6 of 8 segments will be showing “zero”)," he added.

The firm is 60% below the Street for 2019/2020. The 2019 EPS / FCF per share (GE defined) goes $0.35/$0.31 (Street EPS at $0.85-0.90) and 2020 to $0.41/$0.35 (Street EPS at $1).

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