Akorn (AKRX) 'Worst-Case Scenario', Stock Could Settle ~$6-$8 Today - RBC

RBC Capital analyst Randall Stanicky weighed in on Akorn (NASDAQ: AKRX) following a negative decision in the Fresenius merger case. Stanicky called this a "worst-case scenario" for AKRX and thinks the stock could settle in the ~$6-8 range today.

"Our 2019E EBITDA is $130 million versus Street at $137 million," he commented. "The generic group trades at 9.6x 2019E (excluding PRGO, or 9.8x with PRGO). On that basis (with debate around where valuation should fall out given the various factors at play here - see our bull/bear debate below), we think the shares could settle in the ~$6-8 range today."

He said the bull/bear debate now linked to the following: (i) Outlook for appeal and how much optionality is baked into a potential reversal? (ii) Whether the FDA Form 483's at Decatur and Somerset are fixable or whether FDA could take further regulatory action? (iii) Is there another potential buyer for the asset? The ophthalmology and OTC businesses are attractive and the company's generic RESTASIS (third-party manufacturer) holds value. (iv) Is the debt burden overly restrictive? Net debt ~4x levered on our existing EBITDA.

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