Earnings Pressure Could Force Packaged Food M&A in 2017; Mondelez (MDLZ) and Pinnacle Foods (PF) Seen as Targets - RBC

In his 2017 packaged food sector outlook, RBC Capital analyst David Palmer said increasing earnings pressure and the potential for rising rates may pressure companies to pursue accretive M&A and additional cost savings programs.

He said lean-cost companies such as Conagra (NYSE: CAG), Pinnacle Foods (NYSE: PF) and Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC) may be poised to "reload" with the next deal.

In addition, profitable volume growth - supported by revenue and trade promotion management - will also play an increasingly important part in 2017, he said.

The analyst continues to believe a Kraft-Heinz acquisition of Mondelez (NYSE: MDLZ) and a Conagra Brands acquisition of Pinnacle Foods are two of the most likely large-scale M&A scenarios tied to their coverage.

The analyst listed the following 6 food themes:

#1: Perimeter deflation will likely slow and that may not be all bad

#2: Rise of the small brands

#3: Will pressure from 3G Capital inspire new cost savings announcements to offset diminishing savings step-ups from past initiatives?

#4: Exploring trade promotion optimization from another angle

#5: How would changes to taxes and trade relations affect Food earnings? Is immigration reform a dark horse catalyst for Big Food demand?

#6: Why did Food volumes begin to decelerate in US measured channels this summer, and will they improve in 2017 and 2018?

The firm adjusted PTs in the group:

• MDLZ (OP) to $54 from $56
• KHC (OP) to $100 from $99
• BGS (OP) to $54 from $57
• K (SP) to $84 from $86
• GIS (SP) to $68 from $69

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