Jefferies Survey Suggests Positive Expectations for BioMarin (BMRN) Ahead of Data on 11/24

In a turn of events, Jefferies analyst, Gena Wang, surveyed 58 investors to find out expectations for upcoming therapy results and found the buy-side’s expectations of 62/28/10% probability for positive/mixed/negative outcomes for BioMarin Pharma's (NASDAQ: BMRN) Kyndrisa (drisapersen). The results are expected at FDA AdCom (Nov 24). The majority of investors expect a positive AdCom outcome (~62%), while ~28%/10% of investors expect mixed/negative outcome, respectively.

Both positive and negative outcomes are expected to result in significant move (+6-20%/-21-29%) for all three DMD stocks (BMRN/ SRPT/PTCT). If the outcome is negative, average/median stock changes of -21/-15% are expected for BMRN, -25/-30% for SRPT and -29/-30% for PTCT on negative Kyndrisa AdCom outcome.

For BMRN and PTCT, most buy-side investors expect to see stocks up on positive AdCom outcome (average/median of ~19/15% for BMRN; ~23/30% for PTCT). For SRPT, the views seem to be divided into 46% positives vs. 35% negatives from a positive AdCom (average/median of 6/0% stock movement for SRPT).

No ratings changes for any of the companies.

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