Investing.com -- Equinor revealed at its capital markets day that it is doubling its 2026 share buyback program and raising its Norwegian production outlook, prompting a modestly positive initial read from Jefferies.

Analyst Mark Wilson described the CMD as a "small +ve," noting that the headline buyback increase and stronger Norway production targets came in ahead of his preview expectations.

Equinor said it will double its 2026 share buyback to $3 billion from $1.5 billion, with the increase distributed equally across the third and fourth tranches of the program.

Looking further ahead, the company announced "a range-based guidance for share buy-backs of USD 2-4 billion per year" from 2027 onwards, contingent on oil prices between $60 and $80 per barrel and European gas prices between $7 and $11 per million British thermal units.

The company also committed to growing its quarterly cash dividend per share by more than 5% annually.

On production, Equinor raised its Norwegian Continental Shelf target to 1.35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, up 100,000 boe/d from prior guidance.

The company said the increase comes from “sub-sea field developments with break-even prices below USD 35/boe," with plans to develop six to eight new tie-back projects annually through 2035.

Group production is now targeted at 2.3 million boe/d by 2030, up from approximately 2.2 million boe/d guided at last year's CMD.

Jefferies noted that Equinor's free cash flow guidance of more than $40 billion for 2026–2030 exceeds both the Visible Alpha consensus of approximately $29 billion and the bank's own estimate of $32 billion.

Organic capital expenditure is set at approximately $12 billion in 2027, rising to $11–13 billion annually through 2030, with 60% allocated to the Norwegian Continental Shelf.