Investing.com -- Jefferies analysts said President Trump may announce a decision on refined copper tariffs later this month, with potential implementation starting January 2027 at a 15% rate, rising to 30% in January 2028, or a delay of six to twelve months.

The investment bank identified Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto as companies with the most exposure to US copper prices, while Hudbay Minerals and Ivanhoe Electric also face potential impacts.

On August 1, 2025, Trump implemented Section 232 tariffs at a 50% rate on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products, citing national security concerns. The tariffs applied only to the copper content of products, not the entire product value. Refined copper imports were excluded from these tariffs, though restrictions were placed on copper scrap exports requiring 25% of US-produced scrap to be sold domestically.

The Department of Commerce recommended a 15% tariff on copper raw material imports starting January 1, 2027, increasing to 30% in January 2028. Commerce must provide an updated report on copper by June 30, 2026, for Trump to decide on refined copper import tariffs.

Imports currently account for 40% to 50% of refined copper supply in the US. Jefferies said extending tariffs to refined copper would increase price premiums in the domestic market and tighten supply until the industry builds new downstream refining and smelting capacity, a process that would take several years.

COMEX prices have risen above LME prices in anticipation of potential tariffs, with COMEX inventories reaching multi-year highs. The current COMEX premium over LME remains below the potential 15% tariff level. A similar price movement occurred in the first half of 2025 before Trump declined to implement refined copper tariffs, which led to a collapse in the premium.

Jefferies said an announcement of tariffs would likely trigger short-term destocking in the US and lower prices, while a delayed decision would likely result in further stockpiling and higher prices.