Investing.com -- Oppenheimer said Thursday that it has raised its Tesla estimates given the SpaceX IPO but pushed back on the merger narrative gaining traction among investors, arguing that two separate public companies better serve CEO Elon Musk's long-term AI ambitions.

Analyst estimates for fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS were lifted to $97.2 billion and $2.03, respectively, from $94.5 billion and $2.00, driven by higher stationary storage and vehicle sales forecasts. Fiscal 2027 and 2028 estimates were also revised upward.

On the merger question, Oppenheimer believes Musk's "longer-term vision of AI is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital" and that "having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively."

While the firm acknowledged a Tesla-SpaceX combination is "plausible," it characterized a near-term deal as unlikely, expecting supply chain synergies across energy storage, servers, and data to expand ahead of any potential transaction.

Oppenheimer identified Tesla's stationary storage business as a key near-term beneficiary of the SpaceX IPO, arguing that Tesla's energy storage capabilities are "a key enabler of SPCX's time to power/compute," which is driving cash flow through data center leasing. Energy storage sales forecasts were raised 2% for the balance of 2026 and 3% for 2027 and 2028.

On vehicles, Oppenheimer said elevated oil prices are supporting EV total cost of ownership for consumers across geographies, with vehicle sales raised 4% across 2026 through 2028. The firm remains cautious on full commercialization timelines for autonomous vehicles and humanoids, flagging FSD V15 as the next key proof point.