Sunday evening, Mizuho Securities upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) from Neutral to Buy but adjusted its price target lower to $120 from $125. Analyst Abhey Lamba said investors are missing the forest for the trees.

Lamba said the current short-term focus on supply chain data points and weakness in China have likely created an attractive risk-reward.

The firm's survey of 1000+ consumers indicated that Apple continues to command a healthy eco-system with a large number of loyal customers who are likely to upgrade phones over the next few years.

The firm estimates that the lifetime value of an iPhone customer is ~$1,200 and Apple can keep expanding its base.

Additionally, based on LTVC analysis, AAPL's core franchise could be worth $120-130/share offering meaningful upside from here.

Short-term, when Apple reports on 1/26, while they expect the company to deliver results within outlook, the numbers could come in near the midpoint vs historically near/above the upper end of the range. They see iPhone unit sales, total revenues and EPS of 74-75mm, $75.5-76.5bn and $3.10-3.20 against consensus of 76mm, $77bn and $3.25, respectively. F2Q16 guidance will likely be below expectations though this is widely expected at this point.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Apple click here. For more ratings news on Apple click here.

Shares of Apple closed at $96.45 yesterday.