OPEC data indicate close oil supply-demand balance in 2026, no glut

By Alex Lawler

LONDON, Dec ⁠11 (Reuters) - World ⁠oil ‍supply will match demand closely in 2026, OPEC data published on Thursday indicated, an outlook contrasting ‍with projections from the International Energy Agency and ​others of a huge glut.

The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of ​the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, amid widespread predictions of ​oversupply.

In a monthly report on Thursday, OPEC said that OPEC+ pumped 43.06 million barrels per day of ​crude in November, up 43,000 bpd from the previous month, as the latest ‌output hike agreement took effect.

The report forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd ​in 2026, unchanged from last month ⁠and close to what OPEC+ produced in November. OPEC forecast demand for its crude at ‌42.6 million bpd in the first quarter.

Should OPEC+ keep pumping at November's rate in 2026 and other things remain equal, ‌production would be 60,000 bpd higher than demand, according to a Reuters ‌calculation based on the OPEC report.

This contrasts with the view of the IEA, which earlier on Thursday implied global oil supply will ‍exceed demand by almost 3.84 million bpd - an amount equal to almost 4% of world ⁠demand - next year.

In its report, OPEC also kept its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 world oil demand growth unchanged and said the world economy remained on a solid footing.

(Editing by Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan)

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