Japan's Q1 GDP likely rose on firm exports

TOKYO, May 15 (Reuters) - Japan's ‌economy is expected ​to ​have grown for a second quarter in January-March, supported by recovering exports and solid domestic demand, although the full ‌impact of the Iran war had yet to be ⁠felt, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

• Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms likely ‌expanded an annualised 1.7% in ‌the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 17 economists, after a 1.3% expansion in October-December.

• Without annualisation, the January-March ​growth rate was estimated at 0.4%.

• Analysts said private consumption and capital investment remain relatively firm, with the Middle East tension appearing ⁠to have had a limited negative economic impact as of the first quarter.

• Junpei Fujita, ​a senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said the results were expected to confirm that Japan's ​economy continued its moderate recovery.

• "However, looking ahead, ‌caution is warranted because downside pressure on the economy could intensify if negative effects such as higher crude ⁠oil prices and supply constraints emerge due to escalating tensions involving Iran," Fujita said.

• Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, ⁠is expected to have grown 0.2%. Capital expenditure was seen growing 0.2%, easing ​from the previous quarter's 1.3% expansion.

• Net external demand, or exports minus imports, probably added 0.2 percentage points to the first-quarter GDP growth, after its contribution ‌was flat in the fourth quarter.

• The indicator will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise ‌as it decides whether to raise interest rates in June or hold ⁠off until later.

• The government ‌will release the preliminary ​January-March GDP data on May 19 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on May 18).

(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by ‌Sam Holmes)

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