Stifel Recaps Nov. U.S. Auto Sales (GM) (F) (FCAU) (TM)

Stifel analyst James Albertine provided the following summary of November U.S. auto sales:

November SAAR Recap: November SAAR registered 17.2 mm (+5.0% y/y, +8.7% adj. for days), relative to 16.5 mm in October (+8% y/y), 16.4 mm in September (+8% y/y) and 17.5 mm in August (+9% y/y). There was one fewer selling day in November y/y at 25, while days y/y were flat in October, +1 y/y in September and -1 y/y in August. There were 1.30 mm (+8.8% y/y) total new light vehicle sales in November comprised of 663k cars (+3.9% y/y) and 732k light trucks (+13.3% y/y). YTD through November, there were 15.0 mm (+5.9% y/y) total new light vehicle units sold comprised of 7.25 mm cars (+1.5% y/y) and 7.77 mm light trucks (+10.3% y/y). We note y/y rates are adjusted given 281 selling days through Nov. 2014 vs. 282 selling days YTD Nov. 2013.

November Sales by Segment: We note segment totals below include fleet sales, though we provide a more detailed retail vs. fleet breakdown (per LMC Automotive data) in a separate note for reference. Data below is generally adjusted for variation in selling days y/y.

• Domestic unit sales accelerate to +11.4% y/y: Domestic unit sales (Chrysler, Ford, and GM) rose +11.4% y/y to 583k units, driven by a +25% y/y increase at Chrysler, a +11% y/y gain at GM (Hold, $33.26), and a +2% y/y increase at Ford (Buy, $15.90).
• Mid-line import unit sales decelerate to +5.2% y/y: Japanese mid-line unit sales (Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, and Toyota as proxy) rose +5.2% y/y to 408k units, driven by a +9% y/y increase at Honda, a +6% y/y increase at Toyota (incl. Scion), a +2% y/y increase at Nissan, and essentially flat y/y sales at Hyundai. Other mid-line import unit sales (Kia and VW) rose +4.7% y/y to 77k units, driven by a +7% y/y gain at VW and a +3% y/y increase at Kia. We are excluding "other" mid-line imports from our total mid-line import calculation to correspond with AN (Hold, $59.04) monthly total retail sales reports.
• Premium/luxury unit sales accelerate to +8.3% y/y: Premium/luxury (Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz as proxy) brand sales rose +8.3% y/y to 116k units, driven by a +27% y/y increase in Audi sales, a +12% y/y increase at Lexus, a +4% y/y increase at Mercedes-Benz, and a +3% y/y increase at BMW. Other premium/luxury brand sales fell -2% y/y to 26k units, driven by +6% y/y Acura growth offset by a -10% y/y decline at Infiniti.
• Among our subset of alternatively fueled vehicles sales rose +4% m/m (+3% y/y) to 23k units (1.8% market share, flat m/m, -10 bp y/y). We note BMW sold 816 i3 electric city vehicles (-30% m/m), Nissan sold 2,687 fully-electric Leaf units (+40% y/y, +4% m/m), Ford sold 1,940 C-Max hybrid units (-16% y/y, -1% m/m), Toyota sold 13,957 Prius units (-10% y/y, +3% m/m), and Chevrolet sold 1,336 Volt plug-in hybrid vehicles (-28% y/y, -7% m/m). Other AFVs of note include the BMW i8 (126 units sold vs. 204 last month), the Mercedes B-Class (193 units sold vs. 98 last month), and the Cadillac ELR (155 units sold vs. 152 last month). We note Mercedes B-Class battery packs are developed by TSLA (Buy, $231.43).

Domestic Manufacturer Summary (Days Adjusted):

• Ford sales rose +2.1% y/y to 187k units driven by +20.0% y/y utility growth offsetting a -6.3% y/y decline in truck sales, and a -2.3% y/y decline in car sales. Strong utility and pick-up penetration persisted into November as small utilities rose roughly +200 bp y/y to 17.3% of industry mix while full-size pick-ups ran about +50 bp higher y/y to 12.7% share. Retail sales fell -3% y/y (F-Series -14% at retail) as fleet sales rose +3% y/y (+2% commercial, +16% government, -16% y/y daily rental). Ford inventory fell to 79 days from 88 last month and 89 at the end of November 2013 (on plan ahead of F-150 changeover). We note the Ford F-Series remains the best-selling light vehicle YTD through November at 680k units, regaining its lead relative to combined Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra units sales of 660k. Management noted F-Series ATPs increased roughly +$2,100 y/y (vs. +$1,900 y/y last month) to just over $40k per unit. Management noted its F-Series transition remains on track, and that there were an additional 112k pricing/configuring the new truck online, remaining on track for the best response ahead of any Ford launch in history.
• Chrysler sales rose +25% y/y to 171k units as cars rose +31% y/y and trucks rose +23% y/y - Best November since 2001. The Jeep (+32% y/y), RAM (+36% y/y), Chrysler (+35% y/y), Dodge (+6% y/y), and Fiat (+5% y/y) brands were all positive drivers of Chrysler’s 56th consecutive y/y monthly sales gain in November. It appears Fiat 500L sales have also improved after having been constrained by a 30k unit recall in August. The Chrysler brand continues to show steady improvement on the heels of the notable success in the all-new 200 sedan. Chrysler ended November with 80 days of inventory supply (549k units) vs. 84 days last month (531k units) and 71 days in September (500k units). We note RAM and Jeep together typically represent roughly 65% of Lithia's (LAD, Buy, $74.96) Chrysler sales mix.
• GM sales rose +10.7% y/y to 226k units (+1% y/y cars, +17% y/y trucks) as retail sales rose +9.4% y/y (adj. for days) and fleet sales rose +11% (unadjusted for days). Buick led all GM brand sales again in November as units rose +32% y/y (+18% y/y at retail), followed by +28% y/y growth at GMC (+36% y/y at retail), and 7% y/y growth at Chevrolet (+4% y/y at retail) offset by a -15% y/y decline at Cadillac (-17% y/y at retail). We note Chevrolet Silverado sales rose +29% y/y while GMC Sierra sales rose +63% y/y, and large SUVs rose +15% y/y. GM noted (a) incentive spending fell faster at GM (-120 bp m/m, -20 bp y/y) relative to the industry (-10 bp m/m and y/y), (b) demand remained robust across all segments, and (c) ATPs rose +$790 m/m to a record $35,600 per unit. GM ended November with 88 days inventory supply vs. 94 days last month.

Other Notable OEM Sales Results (Days Adjusted):

• Toyota Group U.S. sales rose +7.1% y/y to 191k units as cars accelerated to +3.3% y/y growth and trucks decelerated to +11.6% y/y. Toyota brand sales decelerated to +7.2% y/y growth in November (152k units, while Lexus brand sales accelerated to +11.6% y/y growth (29k units) and Scion brand decelerated to an -18.2% y/y decline (4k units). Toyota car sales accelerated to +2.6% y/y driven by +19% y/y Corolla sales (recent redesign/refresh) and +4% y/y Venza growth offset by a -1% y/y decline in Camry sales, a -10% y/y decline in Prius sales, a -7% y/y decline in Yaris sales, and a -4% y/y decline in Avalon sales. Toyota truck sales decelerated to +13% y/y growth (from +14% y/y last month) underpinned by strength across most models excluding the Sequoia (-16% y/y), FJ Cruiser (-35% y/y), and the Tundra (-1% y/y). Lexus sales rose accelerated to +12% y/y growth driven by strength in both cars (+15% y/y) and trucks (+7% y/y) as virtually all models improved y/y with the exception of the LS sedan (-14% y/y), ES Sedan (-3% y/y) and the LX SUV (-14% y/y), which is consistent with prior months. The CT compact car (+37% y/y) and the new GX SUV (+15% y/y) were key positive drivers at Lexus in November. Management noted (a) November was also a record month for Lexus Certified Pre-Owned sales (similar to October), (b) while the impact from lower gas prices on lower hybrid/car remains inconclusive (Lexus car sales growth goes against the expected trend), (c) November Camry sales mix included 45% of the prior model (80% in October) while new 2015 models comprise 80% of current inventory, and (d) Toyota hybrid sales comprised roughly 65% of industry hybrid sales in November.

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