Texas Feels the Drag from Lower Oil Prices

DALLAS, April 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index continued to ease in January, decreasing 0.9 percentage points to a level of 106.3. January's reading is 34 points, or 46 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.6. The index averaged 105.1 points for all of 2014, four and four-fifths points above the average for full-year 2013. December's index reading was 107.2.

"Our Texas Economic Activity Index fell for the third consecutive month in January. This is the first three-month drop in the Texas Index since June 2009. Five out of eight index components were down in January. These were exports, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing starts, rig count and hotel occupancy. Payroll employment, house prices and sales tax were still positives in January. Obviously, the more than 50 percent drop in oil prices from mid-year 2014 to present is a significant drag on the Texas economy," said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "We know the payroll job growth for the state has slowed through February and the weekly rig count numbers have declined into March, so we expect to see more evidence of a downshift in the Texas economy in the months ahead."

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales tax revenues, home prices, and the Baker Hughes rotary rig count. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to 135 banking centers in Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville regions of Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. To find Comerica on Facebook, please visit www.facebook.com/ComericaCares.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank