Fitch: U.S. Homebuilders Showing More 'Spring' in Their Step

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: U.S. Homebuilding/Construction: The Chalk Line (Spring 2015)

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=864041

Certain macro housing data and input from public builders are suggesting that a solid spring selling season is developing, according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of the 'Chalk Line'.

'Factors like a sound economy, pent-up demand, attractive affordability and a steady easing of credit standards are helping to pave the way for a strong spring season and should help accelerate the housing upturn for the remainder of 2015,' said Managing Director and lead homebuilding analyst Robert Curran.

In 2015, single-family starts should expand about 17% and multifamily volume should gain about 7%. Fitch expects new home sales to improve 18%, while existing home sales stand to rise approximately 4%. Fitch expects stable ratings for most issuers within the homebuilding sector during 2015, reflecting a continued, moderate cyclical improvement in overall construction activity. There is potential for a few positive outlooks and/or upgrades.

Fitch will provide a brief recap of the fourth-quarter 2014 (4Q'14) and comment on the expectations for the 1Q'15 and calendar year 2015 during a teleconference to be held Friday, April 24, at 2:00 p.m. ET (separate press release to follow).

Fitch's latest 'U.S. Homebuilding: The Chalk Line - Quarterly Update: Spring 2015' includes the following key updates and new features:

--Homebuilders' quarterly growth trends and margin statistics for 4Q'14, excluding the impact of non-recurring, non-cash real estate charges, are provided;

--Liquidity analyses are updated and historical liquidity profiles are presented for perspective;

--Recovery ratings are detailed for five single B or lower rated homebuilding credits;

--Past and present oil prices and their effect on the Houston and Texas economies are discussed;

--Fair Isaac's introduction of new credit scores based on alternative data are discussed;

--NAR's latest survey of vacation and investment home sales are detailed;

--RealtyTrac's recent comparison of monthly home payments vs. fair market rent is referenced;

--Data and surveys suggest larger homes are still preferred;

--The government has updated its internal migration trends survey;

--The latest proposals for housing related legislation are detailed;

--Construction immigrant worker flow is referenced;

--Immigrant workers in the construction labor force are noted;

--Various foreclosure statistics and related data are updated;

--There are also updated comments on the Fed and interest rates, metropolitan home prices, housing related regulations, owning versus renting, cash sales, national home pricing trends, jumbo loans, lumber and other materials prices, incremental sources of demand, labor costs, underwriting standards, underwater homes, demographics, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the FHFA, FHA, and VA, potential home buyer surveys, HAMP, HARP, HELOCs, Chinese wall board litigation, AD&C lending and demographics;

--Fitch's economic and construction forecasts for 2015 have been updated.

The report is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' under 'Latest Research' or by clicking on the above link.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

Fitch Ratings
Robert P. Curran
Managing Director
+1 212-908-0515
Fitch Ratings, Inc., 33 Whitehall Street, New York, NY 10004
or
Robert Rulla
Director
+1 312-606-2311
or
Monica Delarosa
Associate Director
+1 212-908-0525
or
Media Relations:
Sandro Scenga, +1 212-908-0278
[email protected]

Source: Fitch Ratings

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