Citi Resumes Alcoa (AA) at Buy

Citi analyst Alexander Hacking resumes coverage on Alcoa (NYSE: AA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $42.00.

The analyst comments "We resume coverage on AA after a period of Rating Suspended with a Buy rating and $42/sh target price. 2Q25 EBITDA is set at $393m—in line with consensus. We model mid-cycle EBITDA at $1.9bn (real $) based on post-split average EBITDA/ton in alumina and aluminum. Target price is $42/sh or 5x mid-cycle (or ~6x on spot). The main pushback/risk is free cash with ongoing leaks from portfolio actions (currently San Ciprian) and limited FCF on spot and ~$500m on our mid-cycle. Aluminum — Citi Commodity Team is “very bullish” on the 6- to 18-month outlook for aluminum given key demand drivers (datacenters/AI, decarbonization) and supply constraints (China cap, competition from power from AI/datacenters). See report: Global Commodities Quarterly - 3Q'25 Commodities Market Outlook: Gold’s ‘last hurrah’, ME escalation, bullish EUAs, and structurally bullish aluminium Estimates — 2025E EBITDA estimate is set at $1.9bn, while 2026E comes to $1.7bn. The company will report next week (7/16), with investor questions mostly around tariff impacts, market outlooks, and cash flows."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Alcoa click here. For more ratings news on Alcoa click here.

Shares of Alcoa closed at $31.15 yesterday.

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