Jefferies forecasts 31% fall in 2026 global smartphone shipments

Investing.com -- Global smartphone makers are set for a sharp contraction this year as memory costs surge far beyond prior expectations, according to Jefferies analyst Edison Lee.

The firm now forecasts a “31% fall in 2026 global smartphone shipment” to 867 million, a steep downgrade from its previous estimate of a 12% decline.

Lee said the firm’s checks show memory costs for an average Android device “would rise by ~3.6x YoY, and ~4.2x for Apple,” reversing its earlier assumption of an 80 percent annual increase.

The bank highlighted that “mobile DRAM (LPDDR5) prices have risen by 70% QoQ or 151% YoY,” while NAND prices jumped “80% QoQ or 360% YoY” in the first quarter alone. It added that second-quarter price hikes “would likely be 50%+ QoQ,” intensifying pressure across the industry.

As a result, Jefferies expects winners and losers to diverge sharply. Samsung and Apple are positioned to gain market share, with Jefferies forecasting a “7ppt/5ppt share gain” respectively as Samsung benefits from its guaranteed memory supply and Apple leverages its less price-sensitive customer base.

Among Chinese brands, Jefferies warned that Xiaomi faces the greatest strain due to its reliance on low-end models.

The firm estimates Xiaomi’s 2026 shipments will “fall 55%… partly offset by a 31% ASP rise.” Other major Chinese OEMs, including OPPO, vivo and Transsion, are expected to see volumes drop 45 percent to 52 percent.

Jefferies concluded that soaring memory prices “would boost the market share of Samsung and Apple the most, and the Chinese OEMs would be the biggest losers.”

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