Q4 Preview: Positive Chattering Ahead of Salesforce (CRM) Results

February 24, 2011 2:39 PM EST
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is trading higher today ahead of the company's fourth quarter earnings report, expected out after the market closes. The stock is up 0.68% this afternoon.

CRM is expected to report EPS of $0.26 with revs of $453.24 million. Last quarter, the San Francisco, CA-based relationship management platform provider reported EPS of $0.32, ex-items, on revs of $429 million, both topping estimates. Looking back at Q409, Salesforce reported EPS of $0.16 with revs of $354 million, beating the consensus EPS of $0.15 and revs of $327.4 million.

Shares gained 13.5% through the quarter, to $129.14 at the end of January. The stock is up 4% since then, and finished 2010 76% better.

Data from Bloomberg has 25 analysts with a Buy on CRM, 12 with a hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $160, with a high of $200 and low of $100. Shares have traded in a range of $151.26 - $64.77 over the last 52-weeks.

Summary
  • Wedbush is looking for revs of $457.1 million and EPS of $0.26. On their revs outlook, Wedbush says: "We model FQ4 Subscription and Support revenue at $428.9M (+31.0% yr/yr) and Professional Service revenue at $28.3M (+6% yr/yr). Over the last 5 years, on average, CRM beats FQ4 revenue guidance by 2.4%, slightly less than its 2.7% annual average."

    They think that a stronger U.S. dollar could modestly impact deferred revs in the quarter. Continuing, Wedbush said: "What we do not know for certain is (1) the exact level of churn in the quarter which determines the size of the hole from which the company needs to offset; and (2) the amount of acquired deferred revenue from the acquisitions of Heroku and DimDim."

    Wedbush currently has an Outperform on the shares with a price target of $155.

  • Morgan Joseph is looking for revs of $448 million and EPS of $0.27. Revs increase will be "largely driven by the increase in the company's subscription revenues as its customer base continues to significantly increase." Additionally, they expect Chatter to experience continued uptake with new and existing customers.

    Additionally, MJ says "anticipate increased commission and expenses related to bonus plans in F4Q11 to decrease operating income Q/Q in F4Q11, however, as the company continues to grow, we believe it can leverage operating expenses and drive EPS higher."

    The firm has a Buy rating, with $170 price target on the shares.
Salesforce is expected to release their Q410 earnings on Thursday, February 24, 2011, at approximately 4:00pm EST. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results withi0 n seconds of their release.


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