The Mosaic Company (MOS) Revises Guidance

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) today announced it revised its second quarter and 2025 outlook.

Phosphate and Potash Pricing Outlook

Phosphate price guidance moves higher: DAP prices on an FOB basis are expected to be in the $650 to $670 per tonne range in the second quarter, revised up from $635-$655 in the previous guidance, reflecting strong market conditions.

Potash prices are expected to be stable: Mine-gate MOP prices are expected to be in the range of $230 to $250 per tonne in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous guidance.

Phosphate and Potash Operations Outlook

Phosphate sales volumes for the second quarter of 2025 are expected to be 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, revised down from 1.7-1.9 million tonnes. 2025 full year production volume is now expected to be 7.0-7.3 million tonnes, revised down from 7.2-7.6 million tonnes.

Mosaic's Bartow phosphate facility is operating at its target rate and is expected to produce over 500,000 tonnes in the second quarter. This rate is commensurate with an annual production level above 2 million tonnes.

The New Wales phosphate facility's production level is expected to increase over 20% in the second quarter from the first quarter. Despite this increase, commissioning and ramp up of the first of three new gypsum handling systems took longer than expected. Mosaic expects the second and third systems to be installed and commissioned by the end of June and early July, driving annual operating run rates to 3 million tonnes at New Wales. (Gypsum handling systems have been a bottleneck at New Wales preventing phosphoric acid plants from reaching full operating rates.)

At the company's Riverview facility, Mosaic extended planned downtimes to eliminate bottlenecks, causing production to miss initial expectations. In the third quarter, Riverview is expected to achieve a run rate corresponding to annual production of 1.6 million tonnes.

At Mosaic's Louisiana facilities, during normal turnaround activity, the team discovered additional necessary repairs, resulting in extended outage periods and some lost production. In the third quarter, Louisiana is expected to perform at its target annual run rate of 1.4 million tonnes.

Mosaic has experienced improved production rates in the areas where work has been concluded at all phosphate facilities. As the remaining maintenance and reliability enhancement work will be completed in June and early July, Mosaic is increasingly confident in its production plans for the second half of the year and continues to expect operating rates to achieve the 8 million tonne target run rate across the full portfolio of U.S. phosphate assets.

In potash, second quarter sales volumes are expected to be 2.3-2.5 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous guidance. Full year 2025 production volumes guidance remains unchanged at 9.0-9.4 million tonnes.

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