Noble Midstream Partners LP (NBLX) Reports FY17 Capital Budget and Guidance
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Noble Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: NBLX) (“Noble Midstream” or the “Partnership”) today announced its 2017 capital budget and provided 2017 guidance and a long-term outlook.
2017 Guidance Highlights include:
- Capital budget of $270 - $300 million, or $155 - $ 175 million attributable to the Partnership
- Oil and Gas gathering volumes of 72 - 80 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d)
- Produced Water gathering volumes of 17 - 24 thousand barrels of water per day (MBw/d)
- Fresh Water delivery volumes of 90 - 160 MBw/d
- Net Income of $134 - $145 million
- EBITDA1 of $145 - $160 million, or $108 - $120 million attributable to the Partnership
- 2017 distribution per unit (“DPU”) growth of 20%
- Distributable Cash Flow (“DCF”)1 coverage of 1.7x - 1.9x
Long-Term Outlook Highlights include:
- 20% DPU annual growth target through 2020 excluding drop downs
- DCF1 coverage exceeding 1.3x in all years
"Entering 2017, we are extremely focused on delivering our key development projects, which will position us for significant, sustainable growth through 2020. Our capital budget will expand our presence in both the DJ and Delaware Basins and is well aligned with the objectives of Noble Energy and our third party customer," stated Terry R. Gerhart, Chief Executive Officer of Noble Midstream.
"We continue to believe a 20% DPU growth target, coupled with a very strong balance sheet is the right financial strategy in today's market. Our disciplined approach provides the greatest opportunity for long-term, sustainable growth through 2020 and beyond."
Noble Midstream refers to certain results as “attributable to the Partnership,” which excludes the non-controlling interests in the development companies (“DevCos”) retained by Noble Midstream’s sponsor, Noble Energy, Inc. (“Noble Energy”). We believe the results “attributable to the Partnership” provide the best representation of the ongoing operations from which our unitholders will benefit. Unless otherwise noted herein, all reference to historical results reflect the results of our predecessor for accounting purposes, for periods prior to the closing of the initial public offering (“IPO”) on September 20, 2016, as well as the results of our Partnership for the period subsequent to the closing of the IPO.
2017 Capital Budget
Excluding acquisition capital, Noble Midstream’s 2017 capital budget is $270 - $300 million, or $155 - $175 million attributable to the Partnership, primarily on growth projects in the DJ Basin and the Delaware Basin.
Delaware BasinBlanco River DevCo (NBLX ownership: 25%)Approximately 25% of Noble Midstream’s gross capital is expected to be deployed in the Blanco River DevCo building backbone infrastructure for oil and produced water gathering services to support Noble Energy’s current three rig program. The Partnership has begun construction on its first Central Gathering Facility (“CGF”), which is expected to be online in the second quarter 2017. A second CGF will be constructed in 2017 and is expected to be online in the fourth quarter 2017.
Trinity River DevCo (NBLX ownership: 100%)The Trinity River DevCo is a newly formed DevCo, which will hold the Partnership’s interest in the Advantage Pipeline joint venture. Following the Advantage Pipeline acquisition, approximately 6% of Noble Midstream’s gross capital budget is expected to be spent constructing a 15-mile pipeline to connect Noble Energy’s acreage to the Advantage Pipeline. The connection is expected to be complete in the second quarter 2017 and will allow for crude oil deliveries to the Advantage Pipeline from the Partnership’s first CGF.
DJ BasinLaramie River DevCo (NBLX ownership: 100%)Approximately 30% of the Partnership’s gross capital budget is expected to be allocated to the Laramie River DevCo to build backbone infrastructure for crude oil gathering, produced water gathering, and fresh water delivery services to support a third party’s development program in the DJ Basin. Infrastructure includes a 35-mile, 60 thousand barrel per day (MBbl/d) crude oil transmission line in the heart of the DJ Basin with connections to multiple downstream takeaway outlets. The oil and produced water gathering systems are expected to be operational in the third quarter 2017.
Green River DevCo (NBLX ownership: 25%)Noble Midstream plans to spend an estimated 27% of its gross capital budget in the Green River DevCo to build out the backbone infrastructure in Noble Energy’s Mustang integrated development plan (“IDP”). The Partnership will provide crude oil, gas, and produced water gathering, as well as fresh water delivery services in the Mustang IDP. Noble Midstream’s first CGF in Mustang is expected to startup by year end and will support Noble Energy’s 2017 rig addition in the basin.
Colorado River DevCo (NBLX ownership: 80%)The Partnership plans to continue expanding its Colorado River DevCo, spending an estimated 12% of its capital budget on highly efficient capital projects in the Wells Ranch and East Pony IDPs. Noble Midstream anticipates constructing approximately 26 miles of gathering lines to support Noble Energy’s ongoing two rig development program in these areas. The Colorado River DevCo consists of crude oil gathering for Noble Energy’s Wells Ranch and East Pony DJ Basin IDPs, and gas gathering and produced water gathering in the Wells Ranch IDP.
Full Year 2017 Guidance
Full year 2017 volumes are anticipated to grow significantly in the second half of 2017 as multiple new projects are expected to be placed in service. Oil and gas gathering volumes are anticipated to average 72 to 80 MBoe/d in 2017, which represents a 16% to 29% increase over 2016. Produced water gathering volumes are anticipated to grow 60% to 126% to an average of 17 to 24 MBw/d.
The Partnership anticipates delivering an average of 150 to 200 thousand barrels of fresh water per equivalent well to Noble Energy, with an equivalent well representing a horizontal well normalized to a 4,500’ lateral length. Total fresh water delivery volumes are anticipated to be 90 to 160 MBw/d.
Also contributing to volume growth is an increase in equivalent wells connected, as 250 to 325 equivalent wells are anticipated to be connected in 2017 as compared to 145 in 2016.
Noble Midstream anticipates 2017 net income of between $134 million and $145 million and EBITDA1 of between $145 million and $160 million, or $108 million to $120 million attributable to the Partnership. The Partnership estimates DCF1 to range between $93 million and $105 million, resulting in DCF1 coverage of 1.7x to 1.9x, with a 20% DPU annual growth forecasted.
Additional average daily volume guidance, including guidance by DevCo and by product, is included in the presentation materials for the Partnership’s conference call to be held on Tuesday, February 14, 2017, which will be accessible on the ‘Investors’ page on the Partnership’s website at www.nblmidstream.com. For additional information, see “Conference Call and Supplemental Information” below. First quarter 2017 guidance information is also included in the presentation materials.
Long-Term Outlook
The Partnership anticipates organic DPU growth of 20% annually through 2020 excluding drop downs from Noble energy of its retained DevCo interests or wholly owned midstream assets. Additionally, while maintaining DCF1 is expected to exceed 1.3x in all years through the same period.
2017 Guidance Table | |||||||||||||||||
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 (Est.) | % Change | |||||||||||||||
| Gross Volumes | |||||||||||||||||
| Oil Gathered (MBbl/d) | 45 | 52 - 59 | 15% - 30% | ||||||||||||||
| Gas Gathered (BBtu/d) | 132 | 154 - 165 | 17% - 25% | ||||||||||||||
| Oil and Gas Gathered (MBoe/d) | 62 | 72 - 80 | 16% - 29% | ||||||||||||||
| Produced Water Gathered (MBw/d) | 11 | 17 - 24 | 60% - 126% | ||||||||||||||
| Fresh Water Delivered (MBw/d) | 94 | 90 - 160 | (4)% - 70% | ||||||||||||||
| Financial Information - Gross (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||
Net Income 2 | $ | 86 | $ | 134 - 145 | 57% - 70% | ||||||||||||
EBITDA 1 | $ | 126 | $ | 145 - 160 | 15% - 27% | ||||||||||||
| Financial Information - Attributable to the Partnership (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||
EBITDA 1 | n/a 4 | $ | 108 - 120 | — | |||||||||||||
Distributable Cash Flow 1 | n/a 4 | $ | 93 - 105 | — | |||||||||||||
Distribution Coverage Ratio 1,3 | n/a 4 | 1.7x - 1.9x | — | ||||||||||||||
| Other Information | |||||||||||||||||
| Equivalent Wells Connected | 145 | 250 - 325 | 72% - 124% | ||||||||||||||
(1) | EBITDA and DCF are not Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) measures. For definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures, see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in the Appendix hereto. | |
(2) | Subsequent to our IPO, we are not a taxable entity for U.S. federal income tax purposes or for the majority of states that impose an income tax. Net Income for 2016 includes approximately $28 million of income taxes attributable to the period prior to our IPO. | |
(3) | 2017 estimates includes a forecasted 20% DPU annual growth. | |
(4) | Our IPO occurred on September 20, 2016. As such, full year information attributable to the Partnership is not available. | |
Conference Call and Supplemental Information
Noble Midstream will host a webcast and conference call on Tuesday, February 14, 2017, at 1:00 p.m., Central Time, to discuss fourth quarter and year end results, 2017 guidance, and the previously announced joint venture with Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. Conference call numbers for participation are 877-883-0383, or 412-902-6506 for international calls. The passcode number is 9134791. The live audio webcast and a replay will be accessible on the ‘Investors’ page of the Partnership’s website at www.nblmidstream.com. Presentation materials are available at the same location on the Partnership’s website.
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