First half of 2024 ended on "high note" for stock markets - UBS

Investing.com -- The first half of 2024 ended on a "high note" for stock markets, with global equities gaining 2.6% in June, according to analysts at UBS.

In a note to clients, the analysts said the MSCI All Country World Index, a tracker of global stocks, climbed by 13.5% in the opening six months of the year, led by 15.3% advance in the benchmark S&P 500.

Returns in the U.S. were boosted in particular by additional evidence that inflation in the world's biggest economy is moderating, a trend that the analysts said leads them to forecast interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half. Optimism over easing price gains was supported by recent data showing the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, had increased by 0.08% in May, the smallest uptick since 2020.

The numbers bolstered the analysts' projection of a so-called "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, a scenario in which inflation is quelled with causing a meltdown in broader activity.

"[W]e believe further signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy will ultimately allow the central bank to cut twice in 2024," the analysts wrote.

The Fed signaled last month that it would likely roll out just one reduction this year, as policymakers remain on the lookout for further signs that inflation is sustainably slowing.

A Fed cut would be the latest development in a cycle of borrowing cost reductions that is potentially in its early stages. The European Central Bank has already trimmed rates for first time since 2019, while the Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank have also slashed policy.

Elsewhere, the UBS analysts identified a boom of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence as a "major theme" for markets. In June, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), a maker of AI-optimized chips, briefly became the world's most valuable company by market capitalization, topping software group Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and iPhone giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Nvidia's shares have retreated since hitting an all-time high on June 18, although they closed out the month up 12.7% and roughly 150% year-to-date.

Lastly, politics was also in focus for investors in June. U.S. President Joe Biden held an earlier than anticipated debate with Republican challenger Donald Trump, a shift that the UBS analysts said could cause "increased volatility" in stocks.

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