Ferrari hits a 23-month low after fresh analyst downgrade

Investing.com -- Ferrari shares fell to their lowest level in nearly two years on Wednesday after brokerage Oddo BHF cut its rating, marking the second downgrade for the luxury carmaker this week and adding pressure to a stock already under strain.

The company’s shares dipped 3.7% to 312.90 euros by 11:56 GMT, its lowest level since January 2024.

The drop comes after Oddo lowered its recommendation to Neutral from Outperform and slashed its price target to €340 from €430.

The broker now expects a slower rollout of the F80, trimming its 2026 delivery estimate to 200 units from 250.

“We also now anticipate a gradual increase in F80 deliveries out to end-2028, whereas we had previously expected a convertible version to take over before then,” analyst Anthony Dick said in a note.

“We think this shift could be telling as Ferrari tactically manages deliveries of its ultra exclusive series to optimize its results,” he added,

Oddo also cut its 2026 EBIT estimate by 3.4%, putting its forecast 2.7% below consensus.

The downgrade comes two days after Morgan Stanley moved Ferrari to Equal Weight from Overweight and cut its price target to $425 from $520, citing the company’s plan to strictly limit volume growth through 2030.

The bank’s analyst Edouard Aubin said it views management’s decision positively from a brand-curation perspective but expects it to translate into “relatively modest growth” in the near term, with only 8% upside to the share price.

Aubin expects Ferrari’s top-line growth to run below 5% over the next three quarters as shipments remain constrained by the timing of new launches such as the F80. He also believes 2026 will be a back-end-loaded year, with profitability lagging consensus due to a softer first half.

Moreover, Morgan Stanley pointed to investor concerns around the upcoming EV launch and residual values, noting that valuation multiples are likely to stay capped until visibility improves.

Including today’s decline, Ferrari shares are down about 24% this year as earnings expectations have been revised lower and the stock has derated from last year’s highs.

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