Raymond James Downgrades Origin Bancorp (OBK) to Outperform

Raymond James analyst Mike Rose downgraded Origin Bancorp (NYSE: OBK) from Strong Buy to Outperform, PT $39.00 (from $44.00).

The analyst comments "We are downgrading OBK shares from Strong Buy to Outperform and lowering our price target to $39 following its strong YTD outperformance (+4.2% vs. -6.2% for the BANK) and where we believe the path to its 1.2-1.3% ROA target in 2027 could become increasingly challenging should loan growth remain muted for the industry at-large. Indeed, and while we continue to view the benefits from its “Optimize Origin” (link, link) strategy positively, we believe the necessary scale to show ongoing progress towards these targets will be more challenging to obtain near-term. As such, we believe valuation more appropriately reflects its profitability profile for now (1.1x TBV/ VA consensus 4Q26 ROTCE / ROAA: 9.6%/ 1.02% vs. peer averages of 1.5x/ 11.8%/ 1.17%) and see risk-reward less positively following its strong relative YTD outperformance. That said, we continue to believe loan growth will be above-peer where it should continue to benefit from its Florida Panhandle/ South Alabama expansion (link) and where it noted at our recent meetings (link) that new hires continue to have significant capacity to grow. While these tailwinds should drive above-peer growth near-term and help achieve its longer-term targets over time, we see the timeline for such is becoming increasingly extended given current market/ economic dynamics and see a less positive risk-reward dynamic for now."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Origin Bancorp click here. For more ratings news on Origin Bancorp click here.

Shares of Origin Bancorp closed at $34.43 yesterday.

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